With the NBA Finals even at 1-1, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are gearing up for what will be a monumental Game 3, as the victor in these situations goes on to win the series 80.5 percent of the time (per NBA.com). Given so much is on the line, this Finals contest will be worth keeping a particularly close eye on. So, here are four storylines to monitor during Game 3.
What Version Of Haliburton Are We Getting?
Throughout the Pacers’ magical postseason run, Tyrese Haliburton’s shown a tendency to drop a “goose egg” once or twice during a series. Coming into the Finals, he’s had three playoff games with eight or fewer field goals attempted. During Game 2, he only took seven shots through three quarters before putting his foot on the gas in the fourth — once the game was largely out of reach.
While it may seem like he’s faltering in big moments, he’s really just taking what the defense is giving him. On those particular nights, the defense isn’t giving him very much. As I’ve discussed before, Haliburton is a basketball genius who’s almost always going to make the right decision.
However, if the Pacers are going to score enough points to beat the Thunder’s suffocating defense, Haliburton is must up his aggressiveness. In normal circumstances, Haliburton’s selflessness leads to high-level offense. But against the Thunder, it is much harder to create open shots for teammates. So, if someone is going to take these tough looks, Haliburton — the best scorer and shooter on the team — should be the one to do it.
Old School Shai
When the Thunder lose, it’s almost always because their offense didn’t perform well enough; they’ve scored 110 points or fewer in every playoff loss.
In Game 1, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 38 points, but the Thunder had just a 104.7 offensive rating (the league average is 113.3 this postseason) because the Pacers did a great job of limiting Oklahoma City’s ball movement.
In Game 2, head coach Mark Daigneault and his staff elected to have Gilgeous-Alexander operate more in the post. After recording zero post-up possessions in Game 1, Gilgeous-Alexander played out of the low block four times in Game 2 (per Synergy).
This created automatic advantages for the Thunder in the half-court. The Pacers were terrified of forfeiting midrange jumpers to Gilgeous-Alexander, so they often sent double-teams his direction whenever he caught the ball there.
Seeing how successful this wrinkle was in Game 2, will the Thunder spam more of it? And if they do, what counters will the Pacers bring?
Will Oklahoma City’s Robin And Alfred Show Up?
Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best scorers we’ve ever seen, but no one man can do it all on his lonesome. He needs his co-stars, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, to offer him some supplementary aide.
While Williams and Holmgren are always stout defensively, their scoring production has ebbed and flowed this postseason. In Game 1, they combined for 23 points on 37.5 percent true shooting. Then, they responded with an excellent Game 2, posting 34 points on 57 percent true shooting.
Across the playoffs, the Thunder are 10-1 when Williams scores 19 or more points (3-4 otherwise) and 10-2 when Holmgren scores at least 15 points (3-3 otherwise).
Which version of these burgeoning stars are the Thunder going to get, the struggles of Game 1 or the bounce-backs of Game 2? That answer could ultimately determine Game 3.
Role Player Shooting
Listen, I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but this stuff matters! Through three rounds, the Pacers had the best role player 3-point shooting percentage of the postseason (41.5 percent). Meanwhile, the Thunder have been slightly below average (35.1 percent).
In Game 1, the Pacers (50 percent from three) outshot the Thunder’s role players (35 percent) by 15 percent. However, in Game 2, that battle flipped and the Thunder role players (44.4 percent) outshot the Pacers (35.7 percent) by nearly nine percent.
Being that they’re the underdog in these Finals, the Pacers will need to win the variance battle — often powered by role player shooting — if they hope to snag three more wins against this Thunder juggernaut.
