ANDY NEWTON’s Best Cheltenham Bets and Hot Stats For Day 2: Is Jonbon A Champion Chase Banker? 5x1p33

Sportscasting’s Andy Newton continues with his quickfire best Cheltenham bets on day 2 and hot stats as the action moves into Wednesday (12th March 2025) with the feature race the Queen Mother Champion Chase where Jonbon is the red-hot favourite.

Best Cheltenham Bets On Day 2: Wednesday 12th March – Can Jonbon Grab His First Festival Win? 70584

1:20 Turners Novices’ Hurdle 1x5t1r

🥇 FINAL DEMAND
🥈THE YELLOW CLAY
🥉THE NEW LION

The New Lion has been all the rage for this race after his Challow Hurdle romp over Christmas and has since been snapped up by JP McManus. He’s now 3-from-3 over hurdles and could be a horse that goes to the very top.

However, that said, we still can’t help to notice the terrible Turners Novices’ Hurdle trend regarding the Challow Hurdle. ALL 21 past winners of that Newbury race to turn up here have lost.

I’d also question the form of that Challow Hurdle anyway. With the third Bill Joyce losing next time, plus the fourth – the expensive Regent’s Stroll also losing since at Windsor.

This, therefore, paves the way for Willie Mullins to win his 8th Turners – this time with his impressive DRF winner Final Demand, who slammed Wingman by 12 lengths, and it could have been double that.

That was only his second run over hurdles too, so can be expected to have a bundle more improvement to come. Plus, with the horse looking a stayer in the making already – we know the trip and hill will be fine.

Of the rest, Potters Charm has had a busy season and has won twice at Cheltenham. Yes, he flopped last time here on Trials Day, but the better ground will suit and after five races between Sept-Jan has also been freshened up. While The Yellow Clay, who was 6th in the Champion Bumper and is 4-4 over hurdles, can also go well.

📈Hot Stats:
– Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times (5 of the last 11)
– Challow Hurdle winners are currently 0-21
– The Irish have won 15 of the last 22 (10 of the last 11)
– 18 of the last 20 winners came from the toip 4 in the betting

2:00 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 4n2r3r

🥇BALLYBURN
🥈BETTER DAYS AHEAD
🥉DANCING CITY

This has been another good race for Mr Willie Mullins with six wins over the years and in Dancing City and Ballyburn he’ll be a big fancy to make that seven. Both are respected, but you feel that Ballyburn has the more class at this stage of his career and looks more of a potential Gold Cup future horse than his stablemate.

Yes, Dancing City is 2-2 over fences, but the horse he beat at Naas last time Bioluminescence has since lost. While 92% of the last 24 winners of this race had run between 3-5 times over fences. He’s only raced twice.

The only blot for Ballyburn came when tried over 2m over Christmas at Kempton to Sir Gino, who just had too much pace, but was still only beaten 7 1/2 lengths in what might still turn out to be a decent run if Sir Gino returns to the track and backs up his tall reputation.

Ballyburn has since returned to winning ways in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the DRF over 2m5f. But is now upped to 3m for the first time you feel there should be a lot more to come.

While last year’s Martin Pipe winner Betterdaysahead has also made a good switch to chasing this season and looks sure to make his presence felt.

📈Hot Stats:
– 6 of the last 16 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Leopardstown)
– Willie Mullins has won the race 6 times
– 13 of the last 19 winners won last time out
– 12 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price

2:40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 3lg1w

🥇 IMPOSE TOI
🥈BALLYADAM
🥉BE AWARE

The first ‘pin-job’ race when looking at the best Cheltenham bets on day 2 – with another ultra-competitive renewal of the Coral Cup. Trainer Dan Skelton has plotted Langer Dan to win the last two, but he’s handicapped out of things this year. With their main chance looking to be Be Aware, who was runner-up in his season’s Greatwood Hurdle.

The 10 year-old Ballyadam was runner-up last year and even though the last winner in double figure was in 1995, he’s lightly-raced for his age (17 hurdles runs) and showed with a win at Punchestown last time he still retains his ability.

He looks a solid bet to hit the frame, despite rated 4lbs higher than last year.

Nicky Henderson Has A Top Record In The Coral Cup 5x6g5b

However, the main pick is the Nicky Henderson runner – Impose Toi for JP McManus. The Hendo yard have won three of the last 11 renewals and this French-bred looks primed to go well. He’s only had eight career runs, but won four and is yet to finish out of the first three. Including a third in the 2024 Lanzarote Hurdle in January and a win last time out at Newbury after 10 months off.

Add in he’s a course winner and won’t mind the ground, but the key is having another break. He’s a horse that goes best off a lay-off – winning three times off breaks of 2+ months. There’s a lot to like about his chance if turning up here.

📈Hot Stats:
– 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
– Skelton, Mullins and Henderson have won 9 of the last 15
– 18 of the last 20 had raced less than 10 times over hurdles
– 11 of the last 15 winners didn’t win last time out

3:20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 6d2

🥇GALVIN
🥈STUMPTOWN
🥉MISTER COFFEY

The Cross Country will be run as a handicap for the first time at the Festival – which should make it a more competitive affair.

Stumptown won here over this course at the December Meeting and will be popular. I’d certainly not put anyone off him and looked to win with more to come. However, the call is to side with the 2023 runner-up in the race Galvin, who should get his preferred better ground.

He’s also trained by Gordon Elliott, who needs just one more win in the race to become the leading trainer on his own (currently on 5 wins). While has since shown his well-being with a 4th in the 2024 Grand National and was a neck second to in a G1 hurdle at Fairyhouse back in October.

2023 Grand National runner-up Vanillier likes these Cross Country events too, as does Latenight. Mister Coffey can go well, but hasn’t won a race over fences in his career (15 runs), while another of interest is Busselton.

From the Joseph O’Brien yard, who has never won this race but fared well against Stumptown (staying on) here in December and now gets a 10lb pull.

📈Hot Stats:
– Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7
– Irish have won 16 of the last 19
– The last 8 winners wore headgear
– 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or less

4:00 BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase 6z2656

🥇 JONBON
🥈MARINE NATIONALE
🥉SOLNESS

I must it, I’ve changed my mind about Jonbon many times in the build-up to this race.

However, Jonbon will be one of the best Cheltenham bets on day 2 for many and it’s not hard to see why. This 9 year-old is a superstar of the 2m chasing division having won 12 of this 14 starts and over £1m in prize money.

But certainly, doesn’t get the full credit he deserves.

Many will question if he’s as good around Cheltenham? Yes, he’s won here but never at the Festival (2 runs) and is overall 2-5 at Prestbury Park. In fact, the only three times he’s lost in his career have come at Chelts.

But there have been excuses. A second to Con Hill in the Supreme was still a fair run. He wasn’t right in the 2023 Arkle and his second in the 2024 Clarence House was still remarkable as most would have fallen.

Those looking away from Jonbon will be pleaseed to hear that six of the last seven odds-on favourites in this race have lost.

So it’s not always gone to plan in this race with the short-priced Cheltenham favourites on the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

These were, Un De Sceaux, Shiskin, El Fabiolo, Douvan, Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi since 2016.

Jonbon Challengers Thin On The Ground 2q681v

But with Gaelic Warrior now heading to the Ryanair Chase on Thursday – there is little to cling to in of – who is going to beat Jonbon?

Okay, Solness has looked good in winning his last two at Leopardstown – but will he be the same at Cheltenham. Don’t forget he was 11th in the Grand Annual last season. Dublin Chase winners are also 0-5 here.

2023 Supreme winner Marine Nationale seems to be slowing getting better with each chase run but is still only 1-5 over fences.

While two-time winner of the race Energumene will need to do a raindance and we’ve only had one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years.

With all this taken into it’s Jonbon’s to lose. With the final plus being that Nico De Boinville has NEVER lost on Jonbon. He’s 8-8 riding the horse (7-7 fences).

📈Hot Stats:
– 6 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
– 25 of the last 40 had won at the Festival before
– 30 of the last 38 aged 7-9
– 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (to have run) have won

4:40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 2e324n

🥇 SO SCOTTISH
🥈JAZZY MATTY
🥉MY MATE MOZZIE

One of the rare races Willie Mullins is yet to win, but we could see last year’s winner Unexpected Party back for more. He’ll be looking become the first back-to-back winner since Dulwich in the 1970’s. He’s rated 6lbs higher this time and could also face last year’s runner-up Libberty Hunter again too.

But the big Grand Annual Chase trend ahead of this race is that 79% of the last 14 winners were rated between 138 and 147. Which is still okay for the 144-rated Unexpected Party, but not for 151 Libberty Hunter.

The Cromwell team also have a good chance with The King Of Prs, who was a tidy winner at Fairyhouse last time. But fell in this race when beaten at the time last year – and is rated 6lbs higher.

So Scottish Looks To Have Been Laid Out For The Race 524w6v

The Emmet Mullins-trained entry So Scottish is another to note, being owned by JP McManus, who has a fair record in this. This horse has been running over hurdles of late so gets back in here over fences with a nice mark (139). Which is 2lbs lower then when sent off favourite for the 2023 December Gold Cup here (Fell 4 out).

He’s also a horse that loves good ground, so the drying conditions will help and he just looks like a plot-job for his having been running over hurdles for a while to keep his chase mark down.

We’ve also got last year’s Arkle 6th – My Mate Mozzie – back for more in an easier race and this 9 year-old is also a proven CD winner.

This Gavin Cromwell runner has warmed up for this with a decent second at the DRF last month to the well-handicapped An Peann Dearg and has form on a better surface if the rain stays away.

2023 Fred Winter winner Jazzy Matty could be worth a saver too off a light weight and having run well here at the October meeting (2nd).

📈Hot Stats:
– 11 of the last 14 winners rated 138-147
– JP McManus-owned horses do well (4 wins, 12 places)
– 11 of the last 15 winners from outside the top 5 in the betting
– Last time out winners just 1 from 18

5:20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper rk3c

🥇 KALYPSO’CHANCE
🥈BAMBINO FEVER
🥉GAMEOFINCHES

We all know Willie Mullins loves to win this race – he’s racked up 13 wins over the years and even rode the winner of one of those in 1996. It will be a brave punter that says he’s not making it 14. However, he’s often mob-handed so finding the right one is not always easy.

Navan winner Copacabana looks smart and it’s been reported that despite not owning it JP McManus has rated this horse one of his best fancies at the meeting.

While recent Punchestown winner Gameofinches is another with a tall reputation already. Both could be anything, while DRF winner Bambino Fever is a mare that’s going places too and won that day in a nice time. She could be the pick of the Mullins bumper runners.

But another yard that has a fair record in the race is Gordon Elliott, with two wins since 2017 and his Kalypso’chance has been near the top of this market with the best betting sites in the UK for much of the season. He impressed on debut at Punchestown in November and backed that up with another win in December. That time at Navan.

He’s been freshened up since and having run a much quicker time than Copacabana and Gameofinches, is taken to give Gigginstown their first success in this race.

📈Hot Stats:
– Willie Mullins has won the race 13 times
– Ireland lead GB 26-7 in the bumper
-30 of the last 32 winners won last time out
– 7 of the last 9 winners had run in February

 

GOOD LUCK 🤞